NABU Wallnau | Fehmarnbelt fixed link

Wallnau.NABU.de Beltquerung Fehmarn Belt fixed link

Fehmarnbelt fixed link

Economical Concerns and possible Environmental Impacts

The idea of building a bridge between Germany and Denmark is almost 100 years old. Since the early nineties plans were becoming more concrete. The Feasibility Study (COWI-Lahmeyer 1995-1999) was the kickoff to bridge Europe's last gap between North Cape and Gibraltar after two further bridge projects - Storebelt and Oeresund between Denmark and Sweden - were planned or already realised by that time.

Ecological questions apart, it may be economically worthwhile to build an inner Danish fixed link over the Storebelt and further to connect the two major cities Copenhagen (DK) and Malmö with the Oeresund-Bridge. However, those projects are not at all comparable with the situation in the Fehmarnbelt and the exchange of goods between Scandinavia, Germany and countries further south.

What has so far been underscored by these two bridge projects in the Baltic Sea is the environmental impact on one of the most sensitive and endangered marine systems in the world.
In the understanding of NABU (Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union, Germany), neither the economic benefits nor the infrastructural requirements justify a project of this size crossing the Fehmarnbelt. The ferry system provides a perfectly satisfactory service 24 hours a day, 365 days a year with less ecological impact on the Baltic Sea. (The Service will also continue after the bridge is built – see further below.)

Infrastructural Concerns (TEN)

Railtrack and road Luebeck-Puttgarden

TEN-Projects promote primarily the shifting of cargo from road to rail. While the expansion of the federal highway B 207 / E 47 from two to four lanes is obviously progressing, expansion of the rail tracks will be comparatively slow. The existing rail track should be electrified and modernised by 2018. A second planned railtrack will not be completed before 2025, seven years after the bridge would be opened to the public in 2018. It is questionable why the European Commission is funding a project with almost 1.5 billion Euros in total which obviously impinges upon its own guidelines.
NABU (Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union, Germany) proved in its expert opinion (February 2008) that passenger and cargo forecasts (train) made by official experts are obviously much too high. Therefore it is debatable if there would be a necessity to expand to two rail tracks at all.

Due to price inflation, the budgeted 840 million Euros for the German hinterland will not be enough to upgrade the railroad to a high speed connection to Copenhagen. Notwithstanding, a significant time saving is one of the major arguments for building a fixed link. Also, the budget is too small to lead the rail tracks around the small towns of Oldenburg and Grossenbrode. Hence, in order to avoid noise pollution, cargo trains especially could be ordered to considerably reduce their speed over this stetch.

Bridge over the Fehmarn Sound

The island of Fehmarn is connected to the mainland by the Fehmarn Sound bridge (two lanes, one rail track). This bridge cannot be extended to more lanes and rail tracks and there is neither a plan nor available money to build an alternative link (second bridge or tunnel). This infrastructural madness will create a bottleneck, as the B 207 / E 47 will have four lanes before and after the bridge. The German government is not interested in investing more than the 840 Million Euros budgeted in association with the planned fixed link for the "hinterland"- explicitly excluding the Fehmarn Sound bridge. The German government will spend more money for the region of Hamburg with its disastrous infrastructural situation (rail and road) before putting approximately 300 Million Euros for a second crossing into its budget for infrastructure. Although Germany will not obtain co-funding for the sector from Luebeck to Puttgarden it is in direct connection with the TEN project. Why the European Commission accepts this procedure is astonishing.

Environmental damages and risks

Ship security

A feasibility study (COWI-Lahmeyer 1995-1999) already states that the new bridge would introduce a high risk of vessel collisions. Assuming watercraft operate with vessel traffic system (VTS) the study predicts one collision within a 32 months period, without VTS however it calculates one collision within 11 months! These assumptions were not included in the final summary from 1999 on which the decision was made for a fixed link.
Each year up to 60,000 vessels, of which 8,000 tankers partly loaded with oil, pass without pilotage through a ten kilometres wide international sea corridor between the German island of Fehmarn and the Danish island of Lolland. It is a matter of fact that the 70 planned piers will form a high collision risk on one of the most frequented "blue highways" of the world. Three passages are planned, each of them about 750 meters wide. The collision risk with piers or among ships approaching the bridge under extreme time pressure will increase significantly, implying the hazard of marine pollution and its associated costs. Neither is VTS in operation in the Baltic Sea nor are there any efforts taken to solve this lack of marine security by the European Commission yet.
The IMO (International Maritime Organisation / UN London) is authorised for the rating of risks, restrictions and respective mitigating measures. The Baltic Sea has been classified as PSSA (Particularly Sensitive Sea Area) by IMO already. Regardless of this, the organisation has not been officially consulted by the governments of Germany or Denmark due to the "lightness of marine traffic" in their respective regions.

Water-exchange in North and Baltic Seas

The Baltic Sea depends on oxygen and salt supply from the North Sea via Skagerag and Kattegat. Bridge support piers verifiably obstruct the essential water exchange between the North Sea and the Baltic (Oeresund- and Storebeltbridge). It can be shown that the stream of deeper salt water would be turned back by a hydraulic mixing effect. Professor Burchard from Leibnitzinstitut für Ostseeforschung in Warnemünde (Leibnitz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Warnemünde / Germany / www.idw-online.de) has already demonstrated this process and the impact of a shortage of fresh water at the Oeresund- und Storebeltbridge. Fears of the irrevocable collapse of the Baltic Sea are voiced regarding one further barrier like the planned Fehmarnbelt bridge. In the eastern part of the Baltic Sea the reduced oxygen supply will have incalculable impact on the marine ecological system. It is plausible that due to the degeneration of water quality the incidence of unfavourable species like seaweed will increase. All countries with coasts on to the Baltic Sea would be affected by such processes, yet they have not been involved in any of the planning stages. Until today there have been no further serious studies {concerning}{about} the real impact of the piers on water-exchange in the region of Fehmarnbelt.

Bird migration

The fixed link in the Fehmarnbelt is planned on Europe's most important bird-migration hotspot. Two routes of about 80 million land- (north-south) und 20 million waterbirds (east-west) meet over the island of Fehmarn. The bridge-project would cross one of the most valuable migration routes worldwide with unpredictable dangers for rare and endangered species. Especially in bad weather conditions thousands of birds would be threatened by 70 pylons and the wire rope construction of the bridge. As there is no comparable bridge-project (running north-south across the flight path) in such a sensitive bird area, unfortunately no proof of the real impact on the birds' lives is verified. The "Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie" (Federal Office for Maritime Shipping and Hydrography) points out that in connection with the planned Danish offshore-windpark Roedesand II, the "Bundesamt für Naturschutz" (Federal Office for Environmental Protection) pleads for keeping the Belt region free of any kind of installation due to bird migration. This estimation must also be applicable to the planned crossing of the Fehmarnbelt.
It is remarkable that the declared FFH- and bird protection areas around Fehmarn omit exactly that part where the fixed link is planned. Additionally, there are three large IBAs (Important Bird Areas) very close by and it is hardly understandable why the island of Fehmarn has no continuous IBA yet.
The feasibility study (COWI-Lahmeyer, technical note, phase 2, june 1998, page 65) points out "that a considerable proportion of several hundred thousands of seabirds on longshore migration over open water in the Fehmarnbelt each autumn will be at the height of the bridge."

Marine mammals

In various aspects mammals like the harbour porpoise and common- or harbour seal would be affected by a project such as a fixed link in the Fehmarnbelt. Harbour porpoises especially migrate, depending on time of year, from western to eastern parts of the Baltic Sea and back. Sounds produced by the animals are outside the acoustic perception of human beings. This "echo-location" enables them to draw an acoustic picture of their particular surroundings. Disturbing or unknown sounds like marine engines and long lasting noise due to construction works (piling of 70 piers into the bottom of the Baltic Sea) causes stress and disorientation which might lead to a debilitated immune system. The German Bundesamt für Naturschutz / BfN (National Bureau of Nature Conservation) points out that knowledge about the mentioned species, as well as about migrating birds, is still deficient. The population of the harbour porpoise in the Baltic Sea is regressive and endangered.

Swirled-up sediments

As a consequence of positioning more than 70 piers into the bottom of the sea, the water will become turbid for several years with unpredictable effects on the Baltic Sea marine environment (flora and fauna). Sensitive marine mammals such as harbour porpoises and seals, as well as various other animal and plant species in this PSSA, will have to suffer the consequences.
Also, the water quality for swimming will affect tourism in the whole Belt region at least for the duration of construction, potentially even longer.

Climate change

Due to increasing storms (westerly winds) in the Baltic Sea a bridge over the Fehmarnbelt (north-south) would most probably often be closed . The small Fehmarnsound bridge (north-south), which connects the mainland with the island of Fehmarn, is normally closed for about 60 days per year for empty lorries and caravans. On an average of almost 20 days it is closed completely for any traffic. As there is no second Fehmarnsound crossing considered in the plans, traffic over the Belt will grind to a halt when the Fehmarnsound bridge is closed. The existing ferryboat connection between Roedby an Puttgarden however is- with very little exceptions- ready for duty every day almost independently from weather conditions. At the moment there is no special wind protection planned for the intended bridge. For the statics of a bridge - 65 meters above sea level - a windshield at least 4 meters high and 20 kilometres long would be problematic and most probably raise the costs enormously.
Due to global warming it can be taken into account that the sea-level will rise. This will have dangerous effects on the bridge's construction as well as on the approach roads. Up to the year 2100 the North Pole, yet covered with ice, will be melted completely.

Costs and refinancing

Increase of costs

The expert-statement of NABU (February 2008, German version download here) also examined the possible rise of costs. Besides the fact that mega-projects are generally more expensive, the explosion of costs for raw materials like steel, concrete and energy since the last cost estimation (2004) is enormous. A fixed link Fehmarnbelt would cost most probably 9 to 11 billion Euros instead of the originally estimated 5.6.

In a comparative survey (Oeresund and Great Belt bridge with Fehmarnbelt) for the Danish advisory transportation council the universities of Lund (Sweden), Aalborg (Denmark) and Karlsruhe (Germany) come to the conclusion that mega-projects are invariably more expensive than forecasted. The two Danish bridges each increased in price by 30% to 50%. An effective participation of investors in the financial risks does not take place due to federal guarantees. The scientists' bottom line is, "that principles of transparency, indisputable specification of accomplishment, explanation of ruling systems and integration of private venture capital should be postulated. But it is hardly to be expected, that the endorsement of these principles on behalf of science leads to a radical change of thinking among politicians."

Bridge toll and ferry

If the investment is not to be refinanced by tolls, every German taxpayer would be affected via the European Union.
Because of the implications of strong westerly winds due to climate change and the positioning of the bridge (north-south) toll expectations could not be calculated accurately.
Meanwhile the ferry company Scandlines points out that they will keep up the service between Puttgarden and Roedby after 2018. If that service were significantly cheaper than the bridge toll, the ferry option could be very interesting for vacationists with more time and especially for truck drivers who use the transit for mandatory breaks (see note above).

Energy costs

The costs for petrol, but especially for diesel fuel have exploded. Forwarding agencies suffer from this development and it is questionable if transports will continue to be organised mainly by road in future.

Taxes

After the fall of the Iron Curtain, considerable German and European support money went into infrastructure projects (roads, ports, rails) in north-east Germany. Significant European funds were especially provided by the EU in the early nineties. All this money would be devalued by the opening of a new route. This aspect should alarm the German Court of Auditors as well as the European Court of Auditors (ECA).

Forecasts

Not only NABU has had a critical look on forecasts of traffic-development in northern Germany. The University of Rostock (Institute for marketing, traffic and tourism) has also demonstrated with a survey that the bridge's cost-value ratio would actually be 1:0.65 (08/07). The institute has criticised inaccurate reference scenarios used in the official experts' reports.

Jobs

Ferry link

More than 1,000 jobs with the ferry line Scandlines will be lost on the island of Fehmarn and in the region of Ostholstein. 600 jobs are affected directly, additionally approximately 400 are at risk in ancillary industries. On the island of Fehmarn every third inhabitant is directly (employee) or indirectly (family members) dependent on Scandlines. An ex-Minister for Transportation in Schleswig-Holstein, Dietrich Austermann, said in a public hearing that the assumed 1,700 new temporary and permanent jobs related with the bridge-project do not necessarily have to be created on the island of Fehmarn.

Tourism

Tourism, the most important employer in the region, will be jeopardised, too. Customers will probably realign to then more attractive destinations in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern or the
west coast of Schleswig-Holstein. The loss of jobs depends on the disturbance in the particular area of the island. A decline of up to 50 % is expected in an already weakening touristic region.
Also the debilitation of the Baltic Sea ports, especially Rostock, Warnemünde and Sassnitz on the island of Ruegen, but also – at the same time heavily promoted - Kiel and Lübeck, will presumably lead to job losses. The created "bottleneck" Fehmarnbelt could also devalue recent infrastructural investments (A 20, port Rostock).

The government of Schleswig-Holstein assumes approximately 1,700 temporary new jobs in the course of the construction works. However, they are less expected to be settled on Fehmarn but more in the region of Ostholstein. Because as many jobs would be destroyed as would be created, there is no real benefit to be seen in this zero-sum game, and it would be a debacle for the island of Fehmarn.
The vista of the bridge and the expected causeway threatens to change the character of the holiday island Fehmarn. The causeway would divide the flat island into two parts whereby the value of recreation would be affected due to long-lasting construction works, water and air pollution. The infrastructure for accommodation and tourist facilities would be especially affected. In addition, with two bridges and a through road the island would degenerate into a simple transit-highway to Scandinavia.
The government of Schleswig-Holstein forecasts (feasibility study) debasement of water and swimming quality for the duration of construction (swirled-up sediments), possibly even longer, which would disturb touristic attractiveness substantially. On top of this the island would be plagued for years by construction- and related traffic noise.

Malte Siegert
Leiter
Manager
NABU
Wasservogelreservat Wallnau
23769 Fehmarn
Germany
Tel. + 49 (0)4372.806910
Fax + 49 (0)4372.1445
Mobil + 49 (0)173.93 73 241
E-Mail Malte.Siegert@NABU-Wallnau.de
www.NABU-Wallnau.de